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Market Outlook - February 2012

Posted on February 1, 2012 in Investing

January 2012 ended as one of the best months in the history of the market. Several sectors are up over 7% this year. With tons of cash on the sidelines recently, investors are slowly putting their cash back in the market.  The defensive sectors (consumer staples and utilities) that held up very well and returned positive numbers in 2011 have been laggards so far in 2012. Despite the great start, fundamentally not much has changed and many of the same risks that were present last year are present today. In fact, Greece is on the edge of default (again). To save them a last minute agreement between private creditors (bondholders) and the Greek Government is needed. It could help Greece avoid ultimate disaster but they still face large issues ahead. Next up, it seems, is Portugal. They are facing many of the same issues as Greece.  Remember, a lot of the market is based on emotion and it appears right now people are brushing aside the concerns in Europe, seemingly assuming a place of action will ultimately be developed.  

Another development last month was the Fed stating they are going to maintain low rates until mid 2014. Initially everyone was expecting rates to tick back up later this year as the economy started to show some signs of recovery. What does this all really mean? This is the Feds way of stating the economy is not recovering as fast as desired. They are hoping by keeping rates low for an extended period of time people and corporations will be encouraged to put their cash to work by…spending it and boosting the economy. The average U.S. saver is being punished by having their cash earn almost nothing while the price of many thinks keep rising. The true risk of this move by the Fed (like many of their moves) will not been seen in the next few months or later this year. Only time will tell if their strategy is correct. If the economy does not pick up as hoped and rates stay this low, the economy could face serious and risks heading into 2013. The bond market has actually rallied on the Fed’s news and more investors are moving to the longer end of the yield curve because they are assuming rates will not be rising in the near term.

While it is great to see the market rocket upward this month, we have to remember that a few weeks do not mean a lot in this market. We have seen this before only to be followed up with extreme volatility. With all the cautions I am mentioning though, it is great to see the US economy is slowly getting better and Europe seems to be trying to work out a resolution to their debt crisis. Will it all happen in an orderly fashion? We will soon find out.

 

Ara Abrahamian, CRPC®
Owner, Financial Planner
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